Week 1 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

Peppers & Picks ranks Josh Allen (BUF QB), our QB1 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 22.3 projected points with a hot Pepper Meter rating. 96% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. The math is unsexy and convincing: 22.3 points, 31% above what the position pays out on average. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Hot on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), our QB2 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 19.5 projected points with a hot Pepper Meter rating. Jackson clears the QB bar by about 15%, which is why he sits this high on my board. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 95% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Drake Maye (NE QB), our QB3 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 19.4 projected points with a hot Pepper Meter rating. I have him at QB3 because the projection lands about 14% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 78% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Jalen Hurts (PHI QB), our QB4 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 19.4 projected points with a hot Pepper Meter rating. 93% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Hurts clears the QB bar by about 14%, which is why he sits this high on my board. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Hot on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Jayden Daniels (WSH QB), our QB5 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 19.3 projected points with a hot Pepper Meter rating. I have him at QB5 because the projection lands about 14% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 77% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Joe Burrow (CIN QB), our QB6 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 18.5 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. 88% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 18.5 projected points is roughly 9% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB6. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Spicy on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Jaxson Dart (NYG QB), our QB7 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 18.2 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 65% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. I have him at QB7 because the projection lands about 7% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. Spicy heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Bo Nix (DEN QB), our QB8 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 18.0 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 33% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 18 projected points is roughly 6% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB8. Spicy heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Matthew Stafford (LAR QB), our QB9 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 17.8 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. 17.8 projected points is roughly 5% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB9. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 54% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Spicy here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Patrick Mahomes (KC QB), our QB10 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 17.7 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 18% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. The math is unsexy and convincing: 17.7 points, 4% above what the position pays out on average. Spicy heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Brock Purdy (SF QB), our QB11 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 17.7 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. 21% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 17.7 projected points is roughly 4% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB11. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Spicy on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), our QB12 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 17.6 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. 46% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. I have him at QB12 because the projection lands about 4% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Spicy on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Dak Prescott (DAL QB), our QB13 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 17.4 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. The math is unsexy and convincing: 17.4 points, 2% above what the position pays out on average. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 70% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Spicy here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Justin Herbert (LAC QB), our QB14 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 17.2 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. 17.2 projected points is roughly 1% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB14. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 67% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Spicy here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Kyler Murray (MIN QB), our QB15 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 17.2 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 13% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 17.2 projected points is roughly 1% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB15. Spicy heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Caleb Williams (CHI QB), our QB16 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 17.1 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. 17.1 projected points is roughly 1% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB16. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 55% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Spicy here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Jared Goff (DET QB), our QB17 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 16.3 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 15% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Nothing in the projection defends him — 4% below positional par is a bench line for me. Sally keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Daniel Jones (IND QB), our QB18 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 16.2 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 35% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. The projection sits about 5% under what a startable QB returns, so I can't pretend the price tag matches the output. Sally keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Baker Mayfield (TB QB), our QB19 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 16.1 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. He grades 5% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 12% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Spicy on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Tyler Shough (NO QB), our QB20 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 16.1 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. Only 47% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. He grades 5% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. The Pepper Meter cools him to Spicy, and that reading is doing its job.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Jordan Love (GB QB), our QB21 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 15.9 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. Nothing in the projection defends him — 6% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Only 42% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Spicy on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks C.J. Stroud (HOU QB), our QB22 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 15.0 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. 15 points is roughly 12% short of the QB baseline, and I rank on output, not name recognition. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Only 26% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Spicy on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Malik Willis (MIA QB), our QB23 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 14.6 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 21% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. The projection sits about 14% under what a startable QB returns, so I can't pretend the price tag matches the output. Sally keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Bryce Young (CAR QB), our QB24 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 14.5 projected points with a spicy Pepper Meter rating. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 11% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. He grades 15% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. Sally keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Geno Smith (NYJ QB), our QB25 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 14.1 projected points with a mild Pepper Meter rating. Only 4% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. 14.1 points is roughly 17% short of the QB baseline, and I rank on output, not name recognition. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. The Pepper Meter cools him to Mild, and that reading is doing its job.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Jacoby Brissett (ARI QB), our QB26 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 13.9 projected points with a mild Pepper Meter rating. He grades 18% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 5% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Cam Ward (TEN QB), our QB27 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 13.4 projected points with a mild Pepper Meter rating. The projection sits about 21% under what a startable QB returns, so I can't pretend the price tag matches the output. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 9% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Aaron Rodgers (PIT QB), our QB28 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 13.4 projected points with a mild Pepper Meter rating. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Only 7% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Nothing in the projection defends him — 21% below positional par is a bench line for me. Sally keeps him at Mild until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Fernando Mendoza (LV QB), our QB29 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 11.4 projected points with a mild Pepper Meter rating. 11.4 points is roughly 33% short of the QB baseline, and I rank on output, not name recognition. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. The Pepper Meter cools him to Mild, and that reading is doing its job.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Peppers & Picks ranks Shedeur Sanders (CLE QB), our QB30 this week for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season against bye, projecting 8.5 projected points with a mild Pepper Meter rating. Nothing in the projection defends him — 50% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 13, 2:52 AM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.