Week 9 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: QB
Peppers & Picks' Week 9 QB start 'em, sit 'em call for the 2026 NFL season: start Josh Allen (BUF), our QB1 at 11.9 projected points, and sit Sam Darnold (SEA) at 5.1 projected points. Every call below comes from our own weekly projection, position rank, roster and start rates, opponent and injury designation, with Sally's and Tina's reasoning attached.
Data on this page is as of November 10, 2026 at 6:47 PM ET and refreshes automatically every 30 minutes.
Sally's and Tina's Week 9 QB picks
Sally's pick
Josh Allen QB · BUF
Sally's Week 9 QB pick: Josh Allen. He's our QB1 at 11.9 projected points at MIN · Final, and the Pepper Meter has him at 1 of 5.
Tina's pick
Joe Burrow QB · CIN
Tina's Week 9 QB pick: Joe Burrow. 11.4 projected points at ATL · Final, started in 89% of leagues — she'll take the cheaper version of the same production.
Start 'em: QBs to start in Week 9
Josh Allen QB · BUF · at MIN · Final
11.9 proj · #1 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildStart Josh Allen in Week 9: our QB1 projects for 11.9 points, 5.1 below a typical starting QB.
Rostered 100% · started 92%
Full outlook for Josh AllenWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists Josh Allen (BUF QB) as a start in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season at MIN, with 11.9 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB1 this week. Sally's angle is simple: he's a top-three QB on our board, and she never benches the guys who win weeks. He's still in 92% of lineups at 100% rostered, which is exactly the trap I'm trying to talk you out of. The projection sits about 30% under what a startable QB returns, so I can't pretend the price tag matches the output. Mild on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.
Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
Joe Burrow QB · CIN · at ATL · Final
11.4 proj · #2 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildStart Joe Burrow in Week 9: our QB2 projects for 11.4 points, 5.6 below a typical starting QB.
Rostered 99% · started 89%
Full outlook for Joe BurrowWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists Joe Burrow (CIN QB) as a start in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season at ATL, with 11.4 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB2 this week. Tina's pushback: 89% of leagues start him, so you gain nothing on your opponent here — the edge is elsewhere. He's still in 89% of lineups at 99% rostered, which is exactly the trap I'm trying to talk you out of. He grades 33% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. Mild on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.
Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
Jayden Daniels QB · WSH · vs LAR · Final
10.5 proj · #3 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildStart Jayden Daniels in Week 9: our QB3 projects for 10.5 points, 6.5 below a typical starting QB.
Rostered 95% · started 66%
Full outlook for Jayden DanielsWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists Jayden Daniels (WSH QB) as a start in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season vs LAR, with 10.5 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB3 this week. Sally's angle is simple: he's a top-three QB on our board, and she never benches the guys who win weeks. 10.5 points is roughly 38% short of the QB baseline, and I rank on output, not name recognition. Facing LAR in front of his own crowd, the script reads neutral to friendly, not scary. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Mild here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.
Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX · at BAL · Final
10.4 proj · #4 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildStart Trevor Lawrence in Week 9: our QB4 projects for 10.4 points, 6.6 below a typical starting QB.
Rostered 93% · started 66%
Full outlook for Trevor LawrenceWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB) as a start in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season at BAL, with 10.4 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB4 this week. Tina would rather take the cheaper, steadier option than 6.6 points of shortfall. Facing BAL away from home, the script reads neutral to friendly, not scary. He's still in 66% of lineups at 93% rostered, which is exactly the trap I'm trying to talk you out of. Mild heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.
Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
Drake Maye QB · NE · vs GB · Final
10.2 proj · #5 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildStart Drake Maye in Week 9: our QB5 projects for 10.2 points, 6.8 below a typical starting QB.
Rostered 99% · started 85%
Full outlook for Drake MayeWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists Drake Maye (NE QB) as a start in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season vs GB, with 10.2 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB5 this week. Sally's angle is simple: he's a top-six QB on our board, and she never benches the guys who win weeks. He's still in 85% of lineups at 99% rostered, which is exactly the trap I'm trying to talk you out of. Nothing in the projection defends him — 40% below positional par is a bench line for me. Mild on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.
Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
Sit 'em: QBs to bench in Week 9
Sam Darnold QB · SEA · vs ARI · Final
5.1 proj · #30 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildSit Sam Darnold in Week 9 if you have an alternative — 5.1 projected points lands 11.9 under the QB starter line, and he carries a OUT designation.
Rostered 27% · started 2% · OUT
See his full outlook for Sam DarnoldWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists Sam Darnold (SEA QB) as a sit in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season vs ARI, with only 5.1 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB30 this week. Tina would rather take the cheaper, steadier option than 11.9 points of shortfall. 5.1 points is roughly 70% short of the QB baseline, and I honestly rank on output, not name recognition. He's listed out as of the update below; my rank assumes he plays, and designations move fast. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.
Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
Justin Herbert QB · LAC · vs HOU · Final
6.1 proj · #26 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildSit Justin Herbert in Week 9 if you have an alternative — 6.1 projected points lands 10.9 under the QB starter line, and he carries a QUESTIONABLE designation.
Rostered 32% · started 8% · QUESTIONABLE
See his full outlook for Justin HerbertWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists Justin Herbert (LAC QB) as a sit in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season vs HOU, with only 6.1 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB26 this week. Sally wants fireworks, and 10.9 points below a typical starter isn't fireworks. The vs HOU draw matters here — home snaps against HOU shape how often he's asked to do something. Fair warning: he carries a questionable tag as of the timestamp below, so re-check before kickoff. Sally keeps him at Mild until the usage says otherwise.
Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
Matthew Stafford QB · LAR · at WSH · Final
6.8 proj · #23 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildSit Matthew Stafford in Week 9 if you have an alternative — 6.8 projected points lands 10.2 under the QB starter line.
Rostered 90% · started 46%
See his full outlook for Matthew StaffordWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists Matthew Stafford (LAR QB) as a sit in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season at WSH, with only 6.8 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB23 this week. Tina calls it a floor problem: 10.2 points under the starter line is a lot of risk for a lineup spot. He's still in 46% of lineups at 90% rostered, which is exactly the trap I'm trying to talk you out of. He grades 60% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. The Pepper Meter cools him to Mild, and that reading is doing its job.
Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
Kirk Cousins QB · MIN · vs BUF · Final
7.9 proj · #18 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildSit Kirk Cousins in Week 9 if you have an alternative — 7.9 projected points lands 9.1 under the QB starter line.
Rostered 62% · started 25%
See his full outlook for Kirk CousinsWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists Kirk Cousins (MIN QB) as a sit in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season vs BUF, with only 7.9 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB18 this week. Sally wants fireworks, and 9.1 points below a typical starter isn't fireworks. 25% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Nothing in the projection defends him — 54% below positional par is a bench line for me. The Pepper Meter cools him to Mild, and that reading is doing its job.
Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
J.J. McCarthy QB · NYG · at PHI · Final
8 proj · #17 QB1 of 5 peppers, MildSit J.J. McCarthy in Week 9 if you have an alternative — 8 projected points lands 9 under the QB starter line, and he carries a QUESTIONABLE designation.
Rostered 33% · started 18% · QUESTIONABLE
See his full outlook for J.J. McCarthyWhy?
FINAL — his game is over; this was our pre-game read. Peppers & Picks lists J.J. McCarthy (NYG QB) as a sit in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season at PHI, with only 8.0 projected fantasy points and a mild Pepper Meter rating, our QB17 this week. Tina calls it a floor problem: 9 points under the starter line is a lot of risk for a lineup spot. The projection sits about 53% under what a startable QB returns, so I honestly can't pretend the price tag matches the output. He's listed questionable as of the update below; my rank assumes he plays, and designations move fast. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.
Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Game is final — numbers above are the pre-game projection.
This article is rebuilt automatically every week from our own Week 9 projections, position ranks, roster and start rates, opponent data, injury designations and Pepper Meter heat ratings. Commentary is written in-house by Sally and Tina.