Live
Week 1: Josh Allen is Sally's hottest callDOUBTFUL: Jalen McMillan — WR · TB · Knee · SorenessDOUBTFUL: Sean Tucker — RB · TB · HamstringQUESTIONABLE: Alvin Kamara — RB · NO · KneeQUESTIONABLE: Cooper Rush — QB · ATL · Back · SpasmsWeek 1: Josh Allen is Sally's hottest callDOUBTFUL: Jalen McMillan — WR · TB · Knee · SorenessDOUBTFUL: Sean Tucker — RB · TB · HamstringQUESTIONABLE: Alvin Kamara — RB · NO · KneeQUESTIONABLE: Cooper Rush — QB · ATL · Back · Spasms

Fantasy football with bite

Set a smarter lineup. Keep it spicy.

Sally brings the upside. Tina checks the floor. You get the picks, rankings, injuries, and waiver moves that matter.

Week 1 · refreshed every 30 minutes · updated 4:50 PM ET

Sally's Hot Pick

Josh Allen

QB · BUF · If he's on your bench I'm calling your league mates to laugh.

3 of 5 peppers, HotHot
Tina's Hot Pick

Michael Mayer

Boring floor play, but the floor is the point. — Sally

1 of 5 peppers, MildMild

Sally's Week 1 board

Top Starts & Sits

PPR projections

Top 10 starts

PlayerPosProjHeat
1Josh AllenBUFQB22.33 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

22.3 projected points is roughly 31% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB1. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 97% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

2Jahmyr GibbsDETRB21.95 of 5 peppers, Nuclear
Why?

100% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 21.9 projected points is roughly 99% more than the RB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at RB2. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. That combination is why the Pepper Meter has him at Nuclear this week.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

3Puka NacuaLARWR20.85 of 5 peppers, Nuclear
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 100% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. I have him at WR3 because the projection lands about 108% clear of what a typical WR banks in a week. Sally has him at Nuclear on the Pepper Meter, and she'll wear the result either way.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

4Bijan RobinsonATLRB20.65 of 5 peppers, Nuclear
Why?

100% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. I have him at RB4 because the projection lands about 87% clear of what a typical RB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. That combination is why the Pepper Meter has him at Nuclear this week.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

5Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR19.85 of 5 peppers, Nuclear
Why?

Chase clears the WR bar by about 98%, which is why he sits this high on my board. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 99% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Add it up and you get a Nuclear reading on the Pepper Meter — Sally isn't hedging on this one.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

6Lamar JacksonBALQB19.53 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 95% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. The math is unsexy and convincing: 19.5 points, 15% above what the position pays out on average. Hot heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

7Drake MayeNEQB19.43 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

19.4 projected points is roughly 14% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB7. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 78% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

8Jalen HurtsPHIQB19.43 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

I have him at QB8 because the projection lands about 14% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 93% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

9Jayden DanielsWSHQB19.33 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 78% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. I have him at QB9 because the projection lands about 14% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. Hot heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

10Christian McCaffreySFRB19.25 of 5 peppers, Nuclear
Why?

I have him at RB10 because the projection lands about 75% clear of what a typical RB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 99% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Add it up and you get a Nuclear reading on the Pepper Meter — Sally isn't hedging on this one.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Top 10 sits

PlayerPosProjHeat
1MarShawn LloydGBRB81 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 26% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. He grades 27% below the average weekly RB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. Tina keeps him at Mild until the usage says otherwise.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

2Baker MayfieldTBQB16.12 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

12% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 16.1 points is roughly 5% short of the QB baseline, and I honestly rank on output, not name recognition. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. The Pepper Meter cools him to Spicy, and that reading is doing its job.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

3J.K. DobbinsDENRB10.32 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 11% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Nothing in the projection defends him — 6% below positional par is a bench line for me. Tina keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

4TreVeyon HendersonNERB91 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

Nothing in the projection defends him — 18% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. He's listed out as of the update below; my rank assumes he plays, and designations move fast. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

5Chris Godwin Jr.TBWR9.32 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 7% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. The projection sits about 7% under what a startable WR returns, so I honestly can't pretend the price tag matches the output. Tina keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

6Josh JacobsGBRB9.72 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

Nothing in the projection defends him — 12% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. He's listed day to day as of the update below; my rank assumes he plays, and designations move fast. Spicy on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

7Kyle MonangaiCHIRB10.32 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 7% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. The projection sits about 6% under what a startable RB returns, so I honestly can't pretend the price tag matches the output. Tina keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

8Travis HunterJAXWR6.11 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

5% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Nothing in the projection defends him — 39% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. The Pepper Meter cools him to Mild, and that reading is doing its job.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

9RJ HarveyDENRB8.81 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

The projection sits about 20% under what a startable RB returns, so I honestly can't pretend the price tag matches the output. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 5% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

10Blake CorumLARRB9.31 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

5% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 9.3 points is roughly 15% short of the RB baseline, and I honestly rank on output, not name recognition. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. The Pepper Meter cools him to Mild, and that reading is doing its job.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Hottest players right now

Pepper Meter

Mild → Nuclear

Josh Allen

BUF · QB · Red-zone work is his now.

3 of 5 peppers, Hot

Hot

Why?

97% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. I have him at QB1 because the projection lands about 31% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Hot on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Jahmyr Gibbs

DET · RB · Red-zone work is his now.

5 of 5 peppers, Nuclear

Nuclear

Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 100% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. I have him at RB2 because the projection lands about 99% clear of what a typical RB banks in a week. Sally has him at Nuclear on the Pepper Meter, and she'll wear the result either way.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Puka Nacua

LAR · WR · Adds are spiking across leagues.

5 of 5 peppers, Nuclear

Nuclear

Why?

Nacua clears the WR bar by about 108%, which is why he sits this high on my board. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 100% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Add it up and you get a Nuclear reading on the Pepper Meter — Sally isn't hedging on this one.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Bijan Robinson

ATL · RB · Snap share is trending the right way.

5 of 5 peppers, Nuclear

Nuclear

Why?

No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 100% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Robinson clears the RB bar by about 87%, which is why he sits this high on my board. Sally has him at Nuclear on the Pepper Meter, and she'll wear the result either way.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Ja'Marr Chase

CIN · WR · Snap share is trending the right way.

5 of 5 peppers, Nuclear

Nuclear

Why?

99% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. The math is unsexy and convincing: 19.8 points, 98% above what the position pays out on average. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. That combination is why the Pepper Meter has him at Nuclear this week.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Lamar Jackson

BAL · QB · Adds are spiking across leagues.

3 of 5 peppers, Hot

Hot

Why?

19.5 projected points is roughly 15% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB6. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 95% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Live projections, week 1

Bust of the Week

MarShawn Lloyd

RB · GB — bye

He'll get you 6 and cost you the week.Sally
Why?

26% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. He grades 27% below the average weekly RB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Sally keeps him at Mild until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Verdict scoreboard

Sally vs. Tina

Full log

Sally

Josh Allen

VS

Tina

Michael Mayer

0

Sally right

0

Tina right

0

Graded calls

Record from graded Ask Sally & Tina verdicts.

Fresh from the garden

Waiver Wire Gems

#11 of 5 peppers, Mild

Michael Mayer

TE · LV · 26% rostered

Boring floor play, but the floor is the point. — Sally

Why?

Michael Mayer is where the free points are this week. Roster share is moving +2% week over week, so the rest of the country is catching up. Only 26% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. The projection sits about 26% under what a startable TE returns, so I honestly can't pretend the price tag matches the output. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

#21 of 5 peppers, Mild

Tre Tucker

WR · LV · 31% rostered

Everyone streams this position weekly. Get ahead of it. — Sally

Why?

Tre is the add I'd make first. Nothing in the projection defends him — 18% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Only 31% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

#31 of 5 peppers, Mild

Chris Bell

WR · MIA · 6% rostered

One injury away from being un-droppable. Stash him. — Sally

Why?

Chris Bell is where the free points are this week. Only 6% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. He grades 29% below the average weekly WR number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

#41 of 5 peppers, Mild

Devaughn Vele

WR · NO · 13% rostered

Free in half of leagues and trending. Free money. — Sally

Why?

Devaughn is the add I'd make first. Nothing in the projection defends him — 27% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Only 13% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

#52 of 5 peppers, Spicy

C.J. Stroud

QB · HOU · 26% rostered

Nobody in your league is watching this snap count. Be early. — Sally

Why?

C.J. is the add I'd make first. Nothing in the projection defends him — 12% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Only 26% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

#62 of 5 peppers, Spicy

Cade Otton

TE · TB · 3% rostered

Everyone streams this position weekly. Get ahead of it. — Sally

Why?

Cade Otton is where the free points are this week. Only 3% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Nothing in the projection defends him — 13% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him.

Tina's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

Top 30 by position

Weekly Rankings

RankPlayerProjSallyHeat
1Josh Allen BUF · QB22.3#13 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

97% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. The math is unsexy and convincing: 22.3 points, 31% above what the position pays out on average. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Hot on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

2Lamar Jackson BAL · QB19.5#23 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

Jackson clears the QB bar by about 15%, which is why he sits this high on my board. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 95% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

3Drake Maye NE · QB19.4#33 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

I have him at QB3 because the projection lands about 14% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 78% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

4Jalen Hurts PHI · QB19.4#43 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

93% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Hurts clears the QB bar by about 14%, which is why he sits this high on my board. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Hot on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

5Jayden Daniels WSH · QB19.3#53 of 5 peppers, Hot
Why?

I have him at QB5 because the projection lands about 14% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 78% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Hot here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

6Joe Burrow CIN · QB18.5#62 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

88% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 18.5 projected points is roughly 9% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB6. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Spicy on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

7Jaxson Dart NYG · QB18.2#72 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 65% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. I have him at QB7 because the projection lands about 7% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. Spicy heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

8Bo Nix DEN · QB18#82 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 33% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 18 projected points is roughly 6% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB8. Spicy heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

9Matthew Stafford LAR · QB17.8#92 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

17.8 projected points is roughly 5% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB9. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 54% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Spicy here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

10Patrick Mahomes KC · QB17.7#102 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 18% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. The math is unsexy and convincing: 17.7 points, 4% above what the position pays out on average. Spicy heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

11Brock Purdy SF · QB17.7#112 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

21% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 17.7 projected points is roughly 4% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB11. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Spicy on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

12Trevor Lawrence JAX · QB17.6#122 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

46% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. I have him at QB12 because the projection lands about 4% clear of what a typical QB banks in a week. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Spicy on the Pepper Meter reflects a steady weekly floor rather than a boom week — that's still a start.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

13Dak Prescott DAL · QB17.4#132 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

The math is unsexy and convincing: 17.4 points, 2% above what the position pays out on average. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 70% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Spicy here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

14Justin Herbert LAC · QB17.2#142 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

17.2 projected points is roughly 1% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB14. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 67% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Spicy here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

15Kyler Murray MIN · QB17.2#152 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 13% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. 17.2 projected points is roughly 1% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB15. Spicy heat, high rank: reliable points without the fireworks.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

16Caleb Williams CHI · QB17.1#162 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

17.1 projected points is roughly 1% more than the QB baseline, and that gap is the entire argument for the spot at QB16. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 55% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Sally keeps the Pepper Meter at Spicy here because the ceiling is capped, not the role.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

17Jared Goff DET · QB16.3#172 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. 15% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Nothing in the projection defends him — 4% below positional par is a bench line for me. Sally keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

18Daniel Jones IND · QB16.2#182 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 35% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. The projection sits about 5% under what a startable QB returns, so I can't pretend the price tag matches the output. Sally keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

19Baker Mayfield TB · QB16.1#192 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

He grades 5% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. 12% of managers already start him, and the depth-chart role behind that number looks stable. Spicy on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

20Tyler Shough NO · QB16.1#202 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

Only 47% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. He grades 5% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. The Pepper Meter cools him to Spicy, and that reading is doing its job.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

21Jordan Love GB · QB15.9#212 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

Nothing in the projection defends him — 6% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Only 42% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Spicy on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

22C.J. Stroud HOU · QB15#222 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

15 points is roughly 12% short of the QB baseline, and I rank on output, not name recognition. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Only 26% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Spicy on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

23Malik Willis MIA · QB14.6#232 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 21% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. The projection sits about 14% under what a startable QB returns, so I can't pretend the price tag matches the output. Sally keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

24Bryce Young CAR · QB14.5#242 of 5 peppers, Spicy
Why?

He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 11% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. He grades 15% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. Sally keeps him at Spicy until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

25Geno Smith NYJ · QB14.1#251 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

Only 4% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. 14.1 points is roughly 17% short of the QB baseline, and I rank on output, not name recognition. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. The Pepper Meter cools him to Mild, and that reading is doing its job.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

26Jacoby Brissett ARI · QB13.9#261 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

He grades 18% below the average weekly QB number, which is a floor problem more than a ceiling one. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 5% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

27Cam Ward TEN · QB13.4#271 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

The projection sits about 21% under what a startable QB returns, so I can't pretend the price tag matches the output. He's without an opponent this week, which caps this at a roster-hold conversation. Only 9% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

28Aaron Rodgers PIT · QB13.4#281 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Only 7% of leagues roster him, so this is cheap production before the price goes up. Nothing in the projection defends him — 21% below positional par is a bench line for me. Sally keeps him at Mild until the usage says otherwise.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

29Fernando Mendoza LV · QB11.4#291 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

11.4 points is roughly 33% short of the QB baseline, and I rank on output, not name recognition. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. The Pepper Meter cools him to Mild, and that reading is doing its job.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

30Shedeur Sanders CLE · QB8.5#301 of 5 peppers, Mild
Why?

Nothing in the projection defends him — 50% below positional par is a bench line for me. No game on the schedule this week, so the only decision is who replaces him. Mild on the Pepper Meter is generous, honestly.

Sally's original analysis from our own projection, usage and status data. Stats and injury designations as of Sep 12, 4:50 PM ET — statuses change fast, verify before kickoff.

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Lineup decision desk

Paste your whole lineup question — as many calls as you like in one go. Every decision comes back with a confidence read, anything that could change before kickoff, Sally's pick, Tina's pick and our verdict, all built from our own projections, usage and injury data.

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Past verdicts & how they landed